General Discussion Kicking penalties

Discussion in 'General Warriors Discussion' started by Miket12, Apr 10, 2018.

  1. pleatedpantspete
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    pleatedpantspete Warriors Bench Player

    So you could realistically break it down mathematically and decide whether the points or try is better

    Say your goal kicker is 80%

    That means a try and kick is worth 5.6 points, on average. (4 points plus .80 * 2)

    Now let's say, we only kick for the penalty when it's easier. So maybe your goal kicker is 95% for that. (1 out of 20 is a miss... that's probably pretty close to actual game play - Foran misses a sitter the other week)

    So a shot at goal is worth 1.9 points. (.95*2 points)

    Then we have to guess how many times we can score from the tap.
    Most games have about 35 sets. Let's say half of these end in the opposite twenty. And most games have about 3 tries. So maybe 1 in every 6 sets in a try. That figures probably a touch lower, given not all tries are scored from that play. (Intercepts, line breaks broken play etc).

    So, on average, going for the try is worth
    16.6% * 5.6 is .92 points, where as going for the goal is worth 1.9 points

    So mathematically the easy shot at goal is the right play, on average

    Of course, There's other judgements and these chances change in play. A team defending their 3rd straight set is more likely to let in a try than on their 1st


    So to sum up - it depends :)
     
  2. wrighty
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    wrighty 1st Grade Fringe

    Tonight we would have been better tapping at 6-6 than taking the two. We had hardly been down that end and we needed to tire them out with some tackles off their try line.

    They themselves said they had a ton of gas at half time as they had hardly been pressed which allowed them to romp home.
     
  3. Super Freak
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    Super Freak Brisbane Broncos Bench Player

    I was baffled when Johnson decided to take the two to go to 8-6, especially given we weren’t finding it difficult to get down the Warriors end.

    I thought the Warriors had us on the ropes and would have scored if they kept applying the pressure. It would have been a different game if they did. But he gave us an easy out and I can guarantee the Broncos players were happy with the decision.

    Game awareness has sometimes been his issue. Sometimes he has trouble reading the game. That’s one of the reasons why Green was signed.
     
  4. wrighty
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    wrighty 1st Grade Fringe

    Agree with all of this except for it being SJ's decision alone. Every game up until now Green and the other leaders have given input. SJ is a consensus guy.
     
  5. BeastMode
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    BeastMode Warriors 1st Grader

    I agree

    How do we know it wasn’t a SK decision to take any 2 pts on offer?....
     
  6. wrighty
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    wrighty 1st Grade Fringe

    One rule connected to penalties I don't like is how their kicker missed a penalty and we had to drop kick it back to them from the twenty and think they eventually scored after having possession for 5 minutes straight. Kicking it from your twenty gives it to them in really good field position. That rule should change.
     
  7. Super Freak
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    Super Freak Brisbane Broncos Bench Player

    The players, especially the halves, have the power to overrule if they think there is something on.

    Smith does it quite often with Bellamy.
     
  8. BeastMode
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    BeastMode Warriors 1st Grader

    I don’t about that sir.

    If SK specifically said take the 2 if it’s up for grabs in the first 20 I highly doubt SJ or Green are going to argue and say they have the power to overrule (not written in a rule book)

    Late in the game when everyone is tired then the halves need to make a quick call whether to exploit a tiring defence... that makes sense though...

    But I don’t think tapping early in the game just to tire them out with a set and potentially not walking away with points is the right answer....

    Got to take easy points when on offer. Don’t risk it by being greedy and trying to double your return with a try
     
  9. wrighty
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    wrighty 1st Grade Fringe

    Here is another one for the group. Dragons down by 8 points get a penalty with 90 seconds left on the clock in kickable range.

    I thought they should have taken the two and then got the ball back from the warriors kick off - and hoped that the inexperience of the warriors in closing out games would make us panic and concede the converted try to tie it.
     
  10. snake77
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    snake77 Warriors 1st Grader

    A good example of the Cleary era was the 2008 semi final against the Storm. Price elected to take the 2 early in the game his argument was to get on the board and calm the guys down a bit. Gould on commentary ripped into that decision cause you need more than 2 points to beat the Storm. We know how that worked out.

    I don't mind taking the two to extend the lead especially if we are making metres. If we are struggling to get field position I'd prefer to make use of the attacking situation.

    It has been interesting the last 10 years or so seeing taking the two points come in and out of favour. At one point teams hardly even considered it.

    Union makes me laugh sometimes when teams are down by 20 odd points and they take the 3 as it's in range and you take the points. You have one side going up by 3's and another going up by 5 or 7 each time.
     
  11. snake77
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    snake77 Warriors 1st Grader

    I captained a really inexperienced side once. I was probably the only full time league player surrounded by some young guys from union playing their first game or some guys who were playing their first game of league or union either ever or for years.

    We get a penalty close and in front and I pretty much got overruled. Ref said you guys opted for it. We go 2-0 up. Anyway I can't recall if we lost by 60 or 80. Just thought I'd lighten the discussion up a bit.
     
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  12. bringmethehorizon
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    bringmethehorizon 1st Grade Fringe

    A kinda related question. When we’re in the opposition 10 or 20 near the sideline and we receive a penalty, we will choose to kick for touch rather than tap. I understand this is so that we can bring the ball in field to tap and start from there. But sometimes they will kick it backwards 5 / 10 metres towards the 20 and then use up a tackle or 2 before running a play. Why?
     
  13. eudebrito
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    eudebrito Warriors 1st Grader

    you'd need their attack coach to explain it, but would guess its so after the first tackle your on about the 11m mark, they have to have a foot on the goal line your dummy half has space to go either side to whatever play is lined up next. Tries like Gelling coming back on the angle don't work so good in tight spaces, need the room to pull the defender over and create the gap.
     
  14. pleatedpantspete
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    pleatedpantspete Warriors Bench Player

    Additionally, while there's more pressure with goal line defence, it's easier for the defending team to defend because the full back is at the line, effectively giving you another man at the defensive line.
    Take it back to 20m and the full back moves out of the line again
     
  15. wrighty
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    wrighty 1st Grade Fringe

    With the score at 6 points to 4 and a penalty right in front of the posts, the warriors took the tap on the grounds the tigers had 12 men and scored in the corner.
    We went in at half time leading by 8. If we kicked the penalty then we would have only led by 6. The extra 2 points gave us confidence and probably made the tigers feel a bit more desperate.

    Good decision.
     
  16. Sup42
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    Sup42 "Dave"

    You always run it when you are up against twelve.

    Whether you score or not you take gas out of the oppositions tank.

    No one kicks it against twelve men unless it is the last five minutes of a game and the scores are close.

    As for the rest, if you have very average kicking form like ours right now....you kick the shots that are in front because the other mob are likely to get six points from trys where you are not so likely.
     
  17. mt.wellington
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    mt.wellington TRUST THE PROCESS? Contributor

    Anyone actually like all the penalties that are being taken this season? I don't really like them cause it looks like a game of rugby union.

    Always wanna see teams running the ball. Think if you took away the rule that the offending team has to drop kick the ball back to the opposition it would cut down a lot of the shots at goal. Going for the kick should be your advantage over...
     
  18. Inruin
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    Inruin Kata Fan Club President

    I don't mind them. I like that giving away penalties can cost you the game. Eventually the game will open up as the offending teams have to chance their arm to get back in the game.
    Disagree with not getting the ball back from a drop out if you miss. That isn't a punishment then. If you kick the goal you get 2 points and the ball back. If you miss you don't get either of those so wouldn't be a fan of changing to that.
     
  19. Sup42
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    Sup42 "Dave"

    Funny you should ask....

    Yeah it goes against the reason for playing league....its the code where you run the ball and make a thousand more tackles a year.

    But selfishly in our case I like it.

    Those settling moments where we all get together bar the kicker....settle down do a bit of breathing....think about the next phase of the game....

    The Warriors need that...when they try to play too fast or to cute they fk it up.
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2018
  20. wrighty
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    wrighty 1st Grade Fringe

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    – with drop-out 3. If the ball goes dead in the opponents’ in-goal from a after unsuccessful penalty kick (not necessarily a kick at goal) the game penalty is restarted with a drop-out by a defending player from the centre of the 20m line.


    I think the drop kick should be further out than the twenty metre line.