General Discussion Kicking penalties

Discussion in 'General Warriors Discussion' started by Miket12, Apr 10, 2018.

  1. pleatedpantspete
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    pleatedpantspete U20's Player

    So you could realistically break it down mathematically and decide whether the points or try is better

    Say your goal kicker is 80%

    That means a try and kick is worth 5.6 points, on average. (4 points plus .80 * 2)

    Now let's say, we only kick for the penalty when it's easier. So maybe your goal kicker is 95% for that. (1 out of 20 is a miss... that's probably pretty close to actual game play - Foran misses a sitter the other week)

    So a shot at goal is worth 1.9 points. (.95*2 points)

    Then we have to guess how many times we can score from the tap.
    Most games have about 35 sets. Let's say half of these end in the opposite twenty. And most games have about 3 tries. So maybe 1 in every 6 sets in a try. That figures probably a touch lower, given not all tries are scored from that play. (Intercepts, line breaks broken play etc).

    So, on average, going for the try is worth
    16.6% * 5.6 is .92 points, where as going for the goal is worth 1.9 points

    So mathematically the easy shot at goal is the right play, on average

    Of course, There's other judgements and these chances change in play. A team defending their 3rd straight set is more likely to let in a try than on their 1st


    So to sum up - it depends :)
     
  2. wrighty
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    wrighty 1st Grade Fringe

    Tonight we would have been better tapping at 6-6 than taking the two. We had hardly been down that end and we needed to tire them out with some tackles off their try line.

    They themselves said they had a ton of gas at half time as they had hardly been pressed which allowed them to romp home.
     
  3. Super Freak
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    Super Freak Brisbane Broncos Bench Player

    I was baffled when Johnson decided to take the two to go to 8-6, especially given we weren’t finding it difficult to get down the Warriors end.

    I thought the Warriors had us on the ropes and would have scored if they kept applying the pressure. It would have been a different game if they did. But he gave us an easy out and I can guarantee the Broncos players were happy with the decision.

    Game awareness has sometimes been his issue. Sometimes he has trouble reading the game. That’s one of the reasons why Green was signed.
     
  4. wrighty
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    wrighty 1st Grade Fringe

    Agree with all of this except for it being SJ's decision alone. Every game up until now Green and the other leaders have given input. SJ is a consensus guy.
     
  5. BeastMode
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    BeastMode Warriors 1st Grader

    I agree

    How do we know it wasn’t a SK decision to take any 2 pts on offer?....
     
  6. wrighty
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    wrighty 1st Grade Fringe

    One rule connected to penalties I don't like is how their kicker missed a penalty and we had to drop kick it back to them from the twenty and think they eventually scored after having possession for 5 minutes straight. Kicking it from your twenty gives it to them in really good field position. That rule should change.
     
  7. Super Freak
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    Super Freak Brisbane Broncos Bench Player

    The players, especially the halves, have the power to overrule if they think there is something on.

    Smith does it quite often with Bellamy.
     
  8. BeastMode
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    BeastMode Warriors 1st Grader

    I don’t about that sir.

    If SK specifically said take the 2 if it’s up for grabs in the first 20 I highly doubt SJ or Green are going to argue and say they have the power to overrule (not written in a rule book)

    Late in the game when everyone is tired then the halves need to make a quick call whether to exploit a tiring defence... that makes sense though...

    But I don’t think tapping early in the game just to tire them out with a set and potentially not walking away with points is the right answer....

    Got to take easy points when on offer. Don’t risk it by being greedy and trying to double your return with a try